With David Paterson reportedly having selected Democratic Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate, Republicans are licking their chops over the looming special election to fill Gillibrand’s seat. Roll Call takes a look at the contenders:
According to several political sources in upstate New York, state Sen. Betty Little (R) has begun talking to local GOP leaders about making the race.
But the Republicans could have an abundance of candidates, including Sandy Treadwell, a wealthy former New York GOP chairman who took 38 percent of the vote against Gillibrand in November. Treadwell spent almost $6 million of his own money on the race last year, and his personal wealth could give him an edge in a special election.
Former state Assembly Minority Leader John Faso (R), who was almost elected state comptroller in 2002 and was clobbered as the GOP nominee for governor in 2006, has been contemplating a political comeback and may see a race for Gillibrand’s seat as a way back in the political game.
Also mentioned is state Sen. Steven Saland (R). State legislators like Saland and Little would not have to sacrifice their seats to run in a special election.
For the Democrats, the possibilities seem to be, well, much fewer:
The list of obvious potential Democratic contenders for the seat is shorter, though state Assemblyman Tim Gordon has been mentioned. Gordon, a member of the Independence Party, was elected to a GOP-leaning seat in 2006 with the support of Democrats. While he lives just outside of the 20th district, his legislative district overlaps with portions of the 20th.
It is also possible that some of the Democrats who were primary runners-up to now-Rep. Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.) in the adjoining 21st district may try their luck in the 20th. Tracey Brooks, the ambitious former Clinton Senate aide who finished second to Tonko in the primary and is close to Gillibrand’s political team, is certain to be mentioned.
Another name mentioned? Former New York Rangers goalie Mike Richter, who owns a home in the Adirondack Mountains. SSP fans will remember Richter’s brief flirtation with a run against Chris Shays back in the early days of 2007. I would consider this one a longer than long shot, though.
the Democrats have no bench in this district. There only candidate live in adjoining districts or are technically independents. Wow. Well, Gillibrand herself burst out from nowhere to take on John Sweeney and beat him, with a little help from the revelation that he was arrested for beating his wife about a week before the election.
This was a disaster pick by Paterson. An utter disaster. Gillibrand will be primaried and probably beaten in a primary against someone in NY metro, and then that bloody primary puts the seat at risk against Peter King.
On top of it, we lose a House seat.
Looks like I’ll probably get the privilege of being represented by a Republican at college as well as at home. Thanks Governor Paterson!
Oh well, might as well make the best of it. I’d like to add another potential Republican candidate to that list: Assemblyman Marc Molinaro. He’s supposed to be Steve Saland’s heir apparent, and apparently he’s BFF with Sandy Treadwell, so he won’t run if either or both of them do.
Unfortunately I can’t think of a strong Democratic candidate. When people use the phrase “traditionally Republican”, this is the area they’re talking about.
Throw away a house seat for no reason.
Gillibrand’s seat will likely be dismantled in the 2010 redistricting, so losing the seat now will not make that much difference in the long run.
Will Peter King be willing to run against Gillibrand to negate our House seat loss? Gillibrand has proven herself in two tough campaigns and this might quell the threat of a run from King… But that’s what we wanted.
That should work to Tracey Brooks’ advantage. She can campaign on having the same resume as Gillibrand, and being able to pick up where Gillibrand left off.
County officials who won election as Democrats in 2007
Ballston Supervisor Patti Southworth
Clifton Park Justice Robert Rybak (elected on the Dem, Independence, and Conservative lines)
Malta Councilman Peter Klotz Sr. (elected on the Dem and Rep lines)
Mechanicville Supervisor Thomas Richardson
Mechanicville Commissioner of Finance Salvatore Izzo
Moreau Supervisor Preston Jenkins Jr.
Moreau Justice Jeffrey McCabe (Rep, Dem, Conservative)
Moreau Councilwoman Gina Leclair (Dem, Indep, Conservative)
Saratoga Springs Supervisor Joanne Yepsen
Saratoga Springs Commissioner of Accounts John Franck
Saratoga Springs Public Safety Commissioner Ronald Kim
Wilton Highway superintendent Kirklin Woodcock
I don’t see how one could think we have a bench problem in the 20th District.
Oh yeah, the nominee should be from Saratoga County. Especially against Faso, who would be a bit of a gift opponent.
I wonder if any Moderate small-time Republicans want to flip in order to try moving up the ladder.
Marirose Blum Bump- former Town Supervisor of Red Hook (northern Dutchess County) comes to mind. She won against long-time incumbent Republican as a fiscally conservative Dem. There are others as well. Dust will settle over next couple of days. NY-20 is no longer a given for Republicans. . .These things often come down to turnout. . .
1. You can bet Patterson isn’t going to post another diary on DailyKos for awhile…
2. Patterson explained himself being against a placeholder because it would cut down on the seniority of whoever became senator. Maybe he’s picking Gillibrand for her lack of seniority in the US House, haha. What a joke.
I heard that Gillibrand is pro-gun and against gay marriage. Is that true? If it is, how could she NOT be primaried by someone in NY Metro?
and i’m impressed by those who do. but i do know, from observing races across the country, that a mainstream democrat in any state, who, say, votes 90% with president obama in the next 2 years, WILL NEVER BE PRIMARIED BY A SERIOUS CANDIDATE.
we can quibble about progressive punch scores, gun rights positions, and how vulnerable this house seat is, but for most New Yorkers (the state not the city – and i think that’s who the senator is supposed to represent), she is going to be a smart, articulate, and politcally savvy senator, with a chance to become a real leader over her long tenure.
as a governor making this choice you have the dream job – a job that every single poster on this blog would probably sacrifice an appendage for. you get to choose the best talent available. there is a fair argument to be made that gillibrand IS the best talent. she is extremely young but very attractive, raises a lot of money, can win in a reddish district. maloney, mccarthy, higgins, slaughter might be great but they seem unremarkable from the little i’ve heard.
Otherwise Brooks may be the best bet. Encouraging that Obama won the district (particulary as McCain would seem a decent fit for it on paper) so not as bad a situation as some are suggesting. Tough but winnable.
First, this is a district that Obama carried… like much of upstate, it has been trending away from a strong Republican history. There is a strong Democratic vote in the district to mobilize. The special election will take place while Obama is still highly popular and trying to pass his agenda through Congress — the voters will have to choose between a conservative Republican who will be painted as an obstructionist, versus a Dem who will tie himself/herself to Obama and Gillibrand. I like the dynamics of a race under those circumstances.
Second, almost no one in the district or the blogosphere knew who Gillibrand was before she first ran in 2006. If we had been having a similar conversation back then, virtually no one would have been talking about her as part of the Democratic bench. With an open seat under these circumstances, a strong Democratic candidate will be found.
Third, with so many potential candidates there is certainly a chance for a contentious Republican primary that could leave their nominee bloodied — if that happens, it could strengthen a Democratic candidate’s chances.
Finally, the DCCC, the DNC, the unions, the advocacy groups, and the NY Democratic Party will go in with as much or more money and resources as will their Republican counterparts– they will do everything they can to keep this seat, and the checkbooks will be open across the country for the race. Even if Treadwell wants to spend his fortune to try to win this seat, our candidate will be able to compete dollar for dollar.
Obviously we need to find the strongest candidate possible, but right now I’d still put the odds at least around 50/50 — the folks crying that the seat is lost are misjudging the race severely.